Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Current status of Monsoon 2012 and Forecast for next one week.
Government of India
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Dated: 22 June, 2012
Subject: Current status of Monsoon 2012 and Forecast for next one week.
Advance of monsoon
Due to strengthening of the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoonal current in
the beginning of the week, monsoon covered most parts of peninsular India
including interior Maharashtra by 17 June. Also due to the formation of an upper air
cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood, the eastern
branch advanced further during the subsequent days covering entire Bihar,
Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim, some parts of east Madhya
Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 21° N/Long. 60°
E, Lat. 21° N/Long. 65° E, Veraval, Navsari, Malegaon, Betul, Jabalpur, Sidhi,
Varanasi, Gorakhpur and Lat. 28 ° N/Long. 83° E.
Rainfall during the week (14 -20 June)
Active/vigorous monsoon conditions prevailed over parts of central & east
India and south Peninsula during many days of the week.
Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess in 09, normal in 11, deficient in 08 and scanty in 08 sub-divisions during the week. In area-wise distribution, 50% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 50% area received deficient/scanty rainfall.
Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1-20 June)
There has been considerable improvement in the rainfall situation over the
country during past week. The All India rainfall deficiency as on 20th June is 26% as against 50% as on 13th June.
Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 03, normal over 09, deficient over 16 and scanty over 08 (mainly over northwest India) subdivisions.
In area-wise distribution, 24% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 76% area received deficient/scanty rainfall.
Current synoptic conditions as on 22 June, 2012
o An off shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Konkan coast to Kerala
o An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining
Jharkhand & Orissa extending upto midtropospheric levels.
o Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over central parts of Uttar Pradesh &
neighbourhood in lower levels.
Forecast for next one week (23-29 June)
o Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over Gangetic West
Bengal & adjoining areas, rainfall would continue to occur at many places over
West Bengal & Sikkim, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya
Pradesh and Vidarbha during many days of the week.
o Rainfall would occur at many places along the west coast and northeastern
states throughout the week.
o Rainfall would occur at few places over east Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya
Pradesh and interior peninsula during many days of the week.
o Isolated rainfall may occur over the remaining parts of the country
Forecast for advance of Monsoon during next week
Analysis of current meteorological conditions and numerical weather prediction models indicate that the conditions are not conducive for further advance of monsoon during next 4-5 days. Thereafter, another pulse may develop in Bay of Bengal which may lead to advance of monsoon over remaining parts of central India and some more parts of northwest India.
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