The very severe cyclonic storm THANE over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 29th December 2011 near latitude 12.30N and longitude 83.00E, about 300 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 480 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around morning of 30th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
29-12-2011/0530
12.3/83.0
120-130 gusting to 145
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1130
12.0/82.3
120-130 gusting to 145
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1730
12.0/81.5
110-120 gusting to 135
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/2330
12.0/80.7
110-120 gusting to 135
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/0530
12.0/80.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1730
12.0/78.6
65-75 gusting to 85
Cyclonic Storm
31-12-2011/0530
12.0/77.2
55-65 gusting to 75
Deep Depression
31-12-2011/1730
12.0/75.8
45-55 gusting to 65
Depression
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from today morning, the 29th December 2011 onwards. The intensity of rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (25cm or more) from today evening onwards and extend to Rayalseema and north interior Tamil Nadu.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from today morning The wind speed will increase gradually from today night onwards becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph along and off north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall.
Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.
Sea condition will be high to very high around the system centre. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from today night onwards.
Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised not to venture into sea. Those who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Damage expected (over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh): Extensive damage to thatched roof and huts. Minor damage to power and communication line due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested (over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh): Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer place. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Source:- http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm
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