Disasters make it the year of living dangerously
AUSTRALIA: With one foot injured, a man makes it to his car so he candrive out of floodwaters at Depot Hill in Rockhampton, Queensland, onJan 6. Daniel Munoz / Reuters
JAPAN: Residents of Rikuzentakata, Iwate prefecture, salvagebelongings eight days after their homes were ruined by theearthquake and tsunami on March 11.
Asia-Pacific region is fast becoming vulnerableto climate change, Karl Wilson reports fromSydney.
It has been a year of devastation and wreckagefor the region, and a year of warning about thedangers of climate change.
The impending cost of inaction could becatastrophic for both human beings andeconomies, experts say.
In 2011, the Asia-Pacific region was hit by someof the worst natural disasters in living memory,leaving thousands of people dead, millionshomeless and wreaking havoc on domesticeconomies.
Floods swamped large parts of easternAustralia and Thailand, while Japan and NewZealand experienced their worst earthquakesever. Prolonged droughts and floods causedhavoc in central and eastern China, with the Yangtze River basin suffering from both droughtand severe flood.
Natural disasters in 2010 caused $109 billion in economic damage - three times more than in2009, according to the United Nations. This year that figure will be much higher.
Damage from the earthquake and tsunami that destroyed much of northeast Japan in Marchcost in excess of $300 billion. The Australian floods in January cost the economy around $30billion, and the February earthquake that destroyed much of Christchurch on New Zealand'sSouth Island left a damage bill topping $20 billion.
The full economic cost of the recent floods in Thailand is still being calculated, but it is expectedto run into the tens of billions of dollars.
It will get worse
While Asia is no stranger to natural disasters, scientists say more extreme weather-relateddisasters are in store - droughts, floods and typhoons - owing to climate change astemperatures increase.
At a recent seminar on migration and global warming held at the Asian Development Bank's(ADB) headquarters in Manila, delegates were told that "the worst is yet to come". The UnitedNations and the World Bank have echoed similar warnings.
If climate change is not addressed now, the ADB said, it will severely hit the region'sdevelopment and affect programs to cut poverty.
"Global warming is likely to cause rice yield potential to decline by up to 50 percent on averageby 2100, compared to 1990, in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, and a largepart of the dominant forest or woodland could be replaced by tropical savanna and shrub withlow or no carbon sequestration potential," an ADB study said.
It warned that the potential economic cost of inaction will be huge.
"If the world continues 'business-as-usual' emissions trends, the cost to these countries eachyear could equal a loss of 6.7 percent of their combined gross domestic product by 2100, morethan twice the world average," the ADB said.
Dennis de la Torre of the Philippines Climate Commission said the country can expect meantemperatures "in all areas of the Philippines to rise by 0.9 degrees C to 1.1 degrees C in 2020and by 1.8 to 2.2 degrees C by 2050". The Philippines is often referred to as Typhoon Alleybecause it is the first country in Southeast Asia to be hit by typhoons and other tropical stormsas they barrel in over the Pacific Ocean. The country is poor, so the impact on the livelihood ofmillions each year is significant.
"The Philippines, as an archipelagic nation, is one of the most vulnerable to climate change.The country ranks No 1 in the world in terms of vulnerability to typhoons and third in terms ofpeople exposed to such seasonal events," De la Torre said.
He quoted a recent Climate Change Vulnerability Index, released by the global risk advisoryfirm Maple-croft, as saying the Philippines ranks sixth among 16 countries in the world asextremely vulnerable to climate change.
'Most vulnerable'
The ADB, in a study on climate change and its impact on Southeast Asia, has said severalfactors contribute to the region's susceptibility to climate change.
Southeast Asia's 563 million people, who rely heavily on farming, are concentrated alongcoastlines that total 173,251 kilometers. An increase in extreme weather and forest fires arisingfrom climate change jeopardizes vital export industries that account for more than 40 percent ofemployment and about 11 percent of GDP.
"The region is highly vulnerable to droughts, floods and tropical cyclones associated withwarming. Its high economic dependence on natural resources and forestry - as one of theworld's biggest providers of forest products - also puts it at risk," the ADB study said.
"Rapid economic growth and structural transformation in Southeast Asia helped lift millions outof extreme poverty in recent decades. But poverty remains high and the poor are the mostvulnerable to climate change."
The ADB said mean temperature increased by 0.1-0.3 degrees C each decade from 1951 to2000, rainfall trended downward from 1960 to 2000 and sea levels rose 1-3 millimeters a year.
Heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones have been more intense and frequent,causing extensive damage to property, assets and human life.
Recorded floods and storms have risen dramatically, particularly in the Philippines, increasingfrom just under 20 in the 1960s to nearly 120 by 2000-08, the study said.
It warned that the region is likely to suffer more from climate change than the world average, ifno action is taken. In its projection, the annual mean temperature will rise 4.8 degrees C onaverage by 2100 from 1990.
"Mean sea level is projected to rise by 70 cm during the same period. Indonesia, Thailand andVietnam are expected to experience increasingly drier weather conditions in the next 20 to 30years, although this trend is likely to reverse by the middle of this century," the study said.
Not enough planning
The World Bank said the Asia-Pacific region is the most disaster-prone region on Earth,accounting for more than 40 percent of the world's disasters and 65 percent of the peopleaffected. From 1970 to 2010, the bank said, natural disasters resulted in more than 3.3 milliondeaths globally and left damage in excess of $2.3 trillion.
The ADB has warned that Asia, home to three-fifths of humanity, has by far the highestpopulation density of any continent and the world's largest percentage of people living inpoverty. As the region undergoes massive social and economic change, more people aremigrating to urban centers along coastal areas, making them more vulnerable to harshweather.
While wealthy countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand have the infrastructure tocope with major natural disasters, countries like Thailand are caught totally unprepared.
Vinod Thomas, a senior vice-president of the World Bank, said that about 50 developingcountries face recurrent earthquakes, mudslides, floods, hurricanes and droughts, yet many ofthem do not seem to recognize they will recur. "Despite all these calamities, countries are stillnot fully prepared to respond adequately when disasters hit them," he said.
"External agencies often do not acknowledge these risks as a systematic threat to theirassistance. For example, almost half of the countries borrowing from the World Bank fordisaster response did not mention disaster prevention in their development plans. Thissituation must change.
"If we are ready to invest sizable funds to establish mechanisms to withstand financial crises, weneed to do the same with the escalating hazards of nature," Thomas said. "Once the tragedydrops off newspapers' front pages, international donors, like the countries, find it hard to stayengaged with prevention efforts. This also means that the world's attention will no longer befixed on natural disasters until the next big one hits us."
Earthquake zones
Asian and Pacific countries have also a high vulnerability to the impact of disasters apart fromthose related to weather. A number of countries sit on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire - thefault line that runs round the Pacific basin from Japan to New Zealand and along the west coastof the Americas and is responsible for much of the volcanic and earthquake activity.
With increasing urbanization, migration patterns and population growth, people are occupyinghigh-risk areas in greater numbers than ever, increasing their vulnerability to disaster impacts,the World Bank has said.
Natural disasters affect the economy immediately and directly, as well as having a long-termimpact. In most disasters, the bulk of immediate damage comes from destroyed assets such asbuildings, infrastructure, inventories and crops.
Disasters do not respect borders or distinguish between income levels, no matter how differentthe effects of disasters on human lives could be.
That could be the first and most important lesson from 2011.
Write to the reporter at karlwilson@chinadailyapac.com.
Read in detail at :- http://cdrn.org.in/show.detail.asp?id=23005
THE public and private sectors signed a joint statement of intent at Apecto strengthen regional disaster risk reduction and resilience, following US Secretary of State's High-Level Policy Dialogue on Disaster Resiliency yesterday.
The Asia-Pacific Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilient Collaboration joint statement, which was signed by nine organisations at the Sheraton Waikiki, intends to use public private partnership as means to help save lives, ensure economic vitality, and enhance human well-being across the region.
The members also urged more organisations from Apec members to get on-board with their effort to reduce disaster risks and increase resilience in the the Asia-Pacific region.
MRC Greenwood, System President of the University of Hawaii (UH), said that UH has offered to host this initiative, and believed that with its strong connections (and location) throughout the region, will be able to make it as home of the initiative.
"In Japan, regardless of how prepared or how strong, the importance there is the ability to sustain and recover after a disaster," she said.
The US Agency for International Development's (USAID) Assistant Administrator Nancy Lindborg said that the initiative was important especially because of disasters happening more frequently in this densely populated world, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
"This won't eliminate disaster, but it helps continuous progress on how to address them," she said, adding, "We have also launched an online tool on how to map and respond to disasters."
Thomas Donohue, president of the US Chamber of Commerce, said with the private sector on board, they bring along a unique capability and resource to the table.
He said that with a 24-7 news cycle, more disasters are being seen, so the greater question is whether more disasters are happening, and why.
Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton, said that yesterday, she chaired two high-level policydialogues on critical issues, disaster resilience and open governance, and held bi-lateral meetings with several countries including China, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
"We discussed a full range of issues from our economic partnerships to our security challenges to our shared humanitarian concerns. In particular, I expressed solidarity with our ally and friend, Thailand, as it contends with the worse flooding in the nation's history," she said.
A release from Apec ministers and senior government officials on the High Level Policy Dialogue on Disaster Resiliency, said that bearing the earthquake and tsunami on March 11 in Japan; the wildfires, typhoons and tornadoes in the region; and recent floods in Thailand, is a reminder that the region is highly prone to impacts of natural disasters.
The statement added that Apec, through its strong networks in the business sector, has a comparative advantage in encouraging greater private sector participation in disaster preparedness and resiliency efforts.
The Brunei Times
Source:- http://www.bt.com.bn/news-asia/2011/11/13/joint-efforts-reduce-disaster-risks